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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 48
2019-09-05 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050851 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in diameter on satellite and radar images. Earlier data from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity close to 100 kt at this time. Dorian should soon begin to experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at least slow weakening during the next couple of days. The official forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72 hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on the high side of the guidance suite. By 72 hours, the global models show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly asymmetric cloud pattern. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the system becoming extratropical by that time. Dorian's initial motion is about 010/6 kt. The hurricane is currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the north. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus. The forecast track and wind radii now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme southeastern New England. The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 31.7N 79.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-05 10:49:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is a little to the right of the last advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 47
2019-09-05 04:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050255 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Satellite imagery indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Dorian was a little better organized with a clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. This trend was confirmed with data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes, which measured a minimum central pressure of 955 mb. SFMR and flight-level winds support an initial intensity of 100 kt. In fact, Dvorak numbers also call for 100 kt. Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone. On the other hand, the wind field is expected to gradually expand during the next several days until the cyclone becomes extratropical near Atlantic Canada. Aircraft fixes yield a northward motion or 010 degrees at 6 kt. Dorian is already recurving as it is becoming steered by the south- southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving mid-level trough. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus. No significant change to the previous track forecast was necessary. The forecast motion should bring the core of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina during the next 6 to 12 hours and over the Outer Banks of North Carolina between 24 and 36 hours. Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from Georgia to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- threatening storm surges from this hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal Georgia into the eastern Carolinas overnight. On Thursday, there is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER NC OUTER BANKS 48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-05 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050234 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Fernand Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Fernand made landfall over northeastern Mexico around 1800 UTC and it has since moved well inland over the very rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains. Based on surface observations and satellite images, it appears that Fernand no longer has a well-defined surface circulation. Therefore, this system does not meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on Fernand issued by NHC. Even though the cyclone has dissipated, its mid-level remnants are expected to continue west-northwestward across northern Mexico during the next few days, producing heavy rains along its path. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information on this rainfall hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-05 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The satellite appearance of Juliette continues to gradually degrade. The eye is filling and there is evidence of dry slots within the circulation. The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast feature and curved outer bands. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, to be in better agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Juliette is still in relatively favorable environmental conditions, but that is expected to change soon. The hurricane will likely be crossing the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and these cool waters, and a dry and stable air mass should cause steady weakening. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that Juliette should become a remnant low in about 4 days, when it will be over SSTs of 24 to 25 degree C. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Juliette is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. During the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward, but at a faster pace, steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to become increasingly shallow, and it should be steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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