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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-09-03 22:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-kt winds about 90 n mi west of the center of Tropical Depression Seven, and based on this it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand. Satellite imagery indicates a gradual increase in organization, with a well-defined low cloud swirl on the southeast edge of a growing area of central convection, accompanied by a large outer band in the northwestern semicircle. The initial motion is now 265/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the remainder of its lifetime. The new forecast track now lies near the various consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in just over 24 h. Based mainly on the current position and motion, the new track is a little south of the previous track, and at this time it appears unlikely that watches or warnings will be needed for the lower Texas coast. An environment of moderate easterly shear appears conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico, and the new intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall. After landfall, Fernand should weaken, with the system dissipating completely over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.4N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 23.4N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 24.2N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 25.0N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 11

2019-09-03 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the northeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a downhill trend. This is supported by gradually cooling waters during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific north of 20N. Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times. The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed, now 295/6 kt. There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it up due to the ridge building to the north. The only minor change to report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models, similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 41

2019-09-03 16:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031451 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today. The eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite imagery. While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged. Recent reports from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak winds have come down a little more. The latest reports from the aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt. As Dorian moves near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time, increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size. The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours, followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours, closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF models. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast. The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches and warnings along the southeastern United States coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 10

2019-09-03 16:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify, with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more symmetric cloud pattern. The center of the eye moved just southwest of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory. Some further strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures. Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt. A large ridge over the southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time. Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns westward. The new NHC track prediction is very close to the previous one through 72 h. There's been a subtle westward model shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-03 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031444 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h. The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to south Texas. Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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