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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-07-27 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 594 WTPZ44 KNHC 270232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 It has been difficult to identify the center of the depression on visible imagery since this afternoon, and microwave imagery from the SSMI and GMI instruments between 2300 and 0000 UTC suggest that the low-level circulation of the depression has not become any better organized. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that this could be generous. Based on an analysis from UW-CIMSS, 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression, and SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear will increase over the next 24 hours. None of the intensity guidance brings the cyclone above minimal tropical storm strength, and the dynamical models all indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure early next week. The intensity forecast therefore keeps the cyclone as a depression through 96 h, and now shows dissipation by day 5. Given the high shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it is very possible that dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast. Due to the uncertainty associated with the initial position of the depression, the initial motion is fairly uncertain but is estimated to be 265/13 kt. Little change has been made to the NHC forecast, and the depression is still forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next several days, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The models are in good agreement on the track of the depression through dissipation, and the NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 10.8N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 10.7N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 10.6N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 10.6N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 10.7N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 11.6N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 12.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-07-27 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 015 WTPZ43 KNHC 270231 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 The cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central convection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective band to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it moves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and SSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase and reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination of the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global models show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96 hours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast remains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward motion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-07-26 22:48:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 085 WTPZ44 KNHC 262048 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin has developed sufficient organization to be classified a tropical depression, the ninth one of the season and second one of the afternoon. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Although the depression is expected to be over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next few days, strong northerly shear should prevent strengthening. The intensity guidance shows little change in strength through the forecast period, and most of the global models show the system opening into a trough within the next few days. Based on this information, the NHC official intensity forecast shows a steady 30-kt depression through the period, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated sometime in the forecast period. The depression is moving to the west at 12 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion is expected during the next several days, taking the system into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours, and well south of the Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 10.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 10.8N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 10.7N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 10.8N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 11.8N 148.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 12.8N 153.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 13.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-07-26 22:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 805 WTPZ43 KNHC 262045 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. However, the satellite presentation is not very well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low. Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of HCCA and the simple intensity consensus. The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same track for the next several days, although by the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 22

2018-07-16 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 295 WTNT42 KNHC 160234 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Dry air and shear has prevented the redevelopment of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and what little convection Beryl had early this morning was not very organized. As a result, the system has become post-tropical and this will be the final NHC advisory. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25-30 kt from TAFB. Beryl is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream overnight, but shear and dry air are expected to prevent organized deep convection from returning. After that time, the remnant low will be moving over much colder waters and a gradual spin down is predicted. The global models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate near southeastern Newfoundland on Tuesday. Beryl is moving east-northeastward at a faster pace than before or 065/11. The cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate over the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within low- to mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The track models are in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 38.6N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/1200Z 39.9N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 42.6N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 45.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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