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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-08-22 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221431 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth is moving over SSTs below 26 deg C and continues to weaken. Using a blend of CI- and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set to 70 kt. Continued weakening is likely as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing south-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough to the west of Kenneth. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest D-SHIPS guidance and calls for the system to decay rapidly to a tropical depression in 36 hours and to a remnant low in 48 hours, although this could occur even sooner than shown here. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is displaced a bit to the southwest of the mid-level center. The initial motion is now estimated to be north-northwestward or 330/10 kt. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast or reasoning. Global models show a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a mid-level trough near 140W longitude over the next few days. Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward through the break until later in the forecast period when the shallow cyclone is likely to turn to the left following the low-level flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.9N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 16

2017-08-22 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220837 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth is quickly weakening this morning. Recent microwave images show that the inner-core structure has eroded and that the low-level center is displaced to the southwest of the mid-level center due to moderate southwesterly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, which is a blend of the various final T- and CI-numbers. The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly weaken during the next day or so while it moves over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. Kenneth should weaken to a tropical storm later today, and become post-tropical in 2-3 days, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, but is a little lower than the statistical guidance and the previous advisory. Kenneth is moving northwestward or 325/9 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northwestward today between a mid-level ridge to its east and a cut-off low to the west. As Kenneth weakens, it is predicted to slow down and turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The track models are in excellent agreement through 48-72 hours, but diverge somewhat after Kenneth weakens and becomes post-tropical. The official track forecast is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus and is not much different than the previous NHC advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted slightly inward based on a couple of recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 20.0N 132.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 15

2017-08-22 04:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220240 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Kenneth's previously distinct eye is clouding over as its eye temperature cools, while the surrounding eyewall convection warms and weakens. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT have dropped and a blend of them suggests an intensity of 95 kt at 00Z. Continued deterioration of the convective structure is justification for maximum winds of 90 kt at advisory time. While no recent size observations have been available, earlier AMSU estimates along with the limited extent of the cold cloud canopy suggest that Kenneth is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 80 nm from the center on average. Kenneth should continue to weaken - perhaps rapidly - under the influence of cool to cold SSTs, dry and less unstable air, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear. Kenneth should likely lose all of its organized deep convection in 2-3 days, signaling its transformation to a post-tropical cyclone at that time. The official intensity forecast is based upon the tightly packed dynamical and statistical model guidance and is a bit lower than the previous advisory. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, as it rounds the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and toward a mid- to upper-level low farther north. Over the next couple of days, Kenneth should turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of speed. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone, it should turn back toward the northwest and slow its forward speed within the weak, low-level tradewinds. The official track forecast is based upon the usually reliable global and hurricane dynamical models, minus the substantially slower and to the left UKMET solution (which has not been performing well thus far this season). The new track forecast is slightly northeast of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.2N 132.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 14

2017-08-21 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Satellite images suggest that Kenneth is gradually weakening. Although the eye remains fairly distinct, the convection in the eyewall is not quite as deep as it was earlier today. An average of the latest final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed a little, to 105 kt. Kenneth is now moving northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward on Tuesday when it moves into a pronounced break in the ridge and it should continue in that general direction for the remainder of the forecast period. The models are in good agreement, and little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is nearing the 26 deg C isotherm, and it is expected to cross into those cooler waters by tonight. Cool waters, stable air, and an increase in southerly wind shear should cause steady or even rapid weakening of the system during the next few days. Kenneth is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or sooner, when it will be over SSTs below 23 deg C and in an environment of more than 30 kt of shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and it is in best agreement with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.3N 131.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.2N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.0N 134.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 27.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1800Z 31.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 13

2017-08-21 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211432 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Kenneth continues to have an impressive structure in satellite images. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and the convective pattern is symmetric around the center. The cloud tops in the eyewall, however, are not quite as cold as they were overnight, which resulted in a decrease of the 1200 UTC Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Based on an average of the final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is lowered a little, to 110 kt. Kenneth has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm later today. In addition, the hurricane will be moving into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable thermodynamics combined with a significant increase in southerly shear beginning in about 2 days should cause Kenneth to weaken at a steady or rapid pace. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days when the shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt while Kenneth is over SSTs below 23 deg C. These conditions should cause the associated convection to dissipate or be sheared away from the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. The major hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The system is forecast to turn to the northwest later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Tuesday as Kenneth moves into a pronounced weakness caused by a cut-off low near the California coast. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.9N 130.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.9N 132.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 24.1N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 27.4N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1200Z 29.6N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1200Z 31.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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