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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 23

2016-07-12 10:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120845 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 The cloud pattern of Celia has changed somewhat, as the hurricane appears to be completing an eyewall replacement cycle. A 50-60 n mi wide eye now is embedded in a relatively small central dense overcast, which gives Celia a somewhat annular appearance. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have changed little since the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains 85 kt. Celia has continued to turn to the right and the initial motion is now 300/9. The hurricane is near the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. A mid-level cyclone seen in water vapor imagery near 29N 151W is expected to weaken to a trough and move northward after 24-48 hours, which would allow a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone. This development would steer Celia in a more westerly direction in the later part of the forecast period. The tightly clustered track models have again shifted a little northward from their previous predictions, and the official forecast shows a similar small shift. The new forecast track lies near the various consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope. Celia should be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures for the next several days, and the dynamical models forecast increasing northwesterly shear after 48 hours. This combination should cause Celia to weaken, and all of the intensity guidance supports this scenario. The new intensity forecast remains in best agreement with the intensity consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 127.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 17.0N 129.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 18.2N 131.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 133.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.4N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 22.0N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 23.0N 148.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 22

2016-07-12 04:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120244 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 Celia continues to lack a definitive Central Dense Overcast and the central features look rather ragged in conventional geostationary imagery. A 37 GHz SSM/I image from a few hours ago revealed that the eye was open over the northeast quadrant. The current intensity estimate is kept at 85 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. Since Celia should be moving over waters that will be gradually cooling and into a more stable air mass, a weakening trend will commence soon. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest model consensus, IVCN. The cyclone has turned toward the west-northwest and the motion is now about 285/9 kt. Celia is near the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. A mid-level cyclone currently to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is predicted to open up into a trough and lift northward, allowing a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Celia to turn more toward the west in the latter part of the forecast period. The track models have mostly shifted northward from their previous predictions, so the official forecast has been nudged a little to the north of the previous one. This is south of the latest dynamical model consensus, however. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2016-07-12 04:43:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120243 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Convective banding associated with Five-E has increased in organization this evening. Accordingly, the SAB and TAFB Dvorak current intensity numbers have increased to a 2.0 from both agencies, corresponding to an intensity of 30 kt. Earlier scatterometer data suggested higher winds than given by Dvorak estimates, however, so the system may already be a tropical storm. The environment in which Five-E is moving over and through - quite warm SSTs, a very moist atmosphere, and moderate to low tropospheric vertical shear - is likely to promote steady intensification during the next three days. Around days 4 and 5, however, the cyclone should be encountering the cool wake produced by Hurricanes Blas and Celia. This sub-26 deg C water and more stable environment may cause the system to gradually weaken at that time. The intensity forecast is closest to an HWRF dynamical/SHIPS statistical model blend through 72 h, and to SHIPS alone at days 4 and 5, and is very similar to that from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone is moving at 320/8 kt, though the current position and motion are somewhat uncertain because of the lack of useful microwave imagery passes this evening. The system should bend to a due west heading by tomorrow, as the deep-layer ridge to its north builds in and strengthens. The model guidance is tightly clustered through all five days and the NHC track prediction is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone will remain out to sea with no threat to land for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.7N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Whats changed from the Discussion Draft Central City 2035 Plan?

2016-07-11 23:39:10| PortlandOnline

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Whats changed from the Discussion Draft Central City 2035 Plan?

2016-07-11 23:01:49| PortlandOnline

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