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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-06 22:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062041 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Grace is a fairly well-organized, compact tropical cyclone with banding features and well-defined upper-level outflow to the north and south of the system. Deep convection has been rather limited today, but recent imagery shows some cold cloud tops developing near the center. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to remain modest for the next 24 hours or so, there is window of opportunity for short-term strengthening. Within 36 hours, the dynamical guidance shows the shear increasing to over 20 kt, and this should cause a weakening trend beginning around that time. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus for the first half of the period and close to, or a little below, the consensus thereafter. It is worth noting that the GFS shows significant weakening of the cyclone in 4 to 5 days, with the ECMWF showing dissipation by that time. The storm has accelerated a bit and is now moving at about 280/13. For the next several days, Grace should continue to move within a moderate low- to mid-level easterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance models are noticeably faster than they were on the previous cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. The NHC track is not far from the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.2N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.3N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 13.6N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.9N 39.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.3N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.0N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 16.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 17.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of FRED Forecast Discussion Number 32
2015-09-06 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 062039 TCDAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 High-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation had become elongated and ill-defined. This is further reinforced by a 37 GHz GCOM microwave image showing that the system lacks a well-defined center. Therefore, Fred is no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued. The disturbance should continue on a general north-northeastward heading until it completely loses its identity in a day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 26.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-06 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Linda is strengthening. Satellite images indicate that banding features have become better defined during the last several hours, and deep convection has been persisting near the center. The circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending several hundred miles across. The Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt. Based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48 hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler water and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model. Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or slightly faster forward speed. After that time, a slowdown is predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-06 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the depression has been increasing during the last several hours and banding features are becoming better established on the west side of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications have increased to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB. The latest ADT value from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Linda. Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to northeasterly shear. This shear, however, is not expected to be strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along the forecast track. These conditions should halt intensification and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and LGEM models. Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is expected to more or less remain in place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on the same general course. After that time, a slowdown is predicted as the ridge weakens some. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-09-06 16:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061434 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Fred continues to linger as a tropical depression. Visible satellite images indicate that the center of Fred remains well defined, but the outer circulation has become elongated likely due to the interaction with a frontal system to its northwest. Deep convection is disorganized, and consists of two patches to the north and south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Fred is currently battling about 20 kt of north-northwesterly shear and is in an environment of fairly dry mid-level air. The shear is expected to lessen some during the next day or so before it increases again from the west in 48-72 hours, at which time the cyclone will begin to move over slightly lower SSTs. Therefore, a little strengthening is possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes more hostile. The NHC intensity forecast lies on the low side of the guidance, and is similar to the previous one. The depression is moving northward, or 005 degrees, at about 8 kt. A deep-layer trough to the northwest of the system should cause Fred to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed during the next day or two. After that time, the trough is expected to flatten, and that should allow Fred to turn eastward and then southeastward by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. It should be noted that an alternate scenario, provided by the ECMWF model, is that circulation of Fred could open up into a trough when it interacts with the nearby frontal system during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 25.7N 43.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.0N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.8N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 31.4N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 32.8N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 32.9N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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