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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-05 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052032 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has gradually increased in organization since the last advisory. A band over the southwestern portion of the circulation has taken more shape, with cloud tops cooling slightly during the last several hours. Microwave and conventional satellite imagery also suggest that some inner-core structural organization has already developed. Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/ 35 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, so the initial intensity estimate is 35 kt. Large-scale conditions should be conducive for some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours, with the depression embedded in an environment of light easterly shear and over warm SSTs. The one caveat is that a general drying of the lower to middle troposphere in the near-storm environment is forecast, possibly due to increasing subsidence, which could squelch additional strengthening. After 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to encounter westerly flow aloft associated with an enhanced upper-level trough extending from near the Antilles to the eastern tropical Atlantic. This pattern should produce enough vertical shear to cause weakening or possibly even dissipation by day 4 or 5 of the forecast. The new intensity forecast shows slightly greater intensification in the short term relative to the previous one, with a peak in 36 hours, and greater weakening at the end of the forecast. The initial motion estimate is 280/12. A low- to mid-level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic should keep the cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward track throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast is faster than the previous one, especially at the extended range, and on the south side of guidance envelope in best agreement with the FSU Superensemble and ECMWF model solution. This makes intuitive sense, since a weaker system would likely track farther south and move faster. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.6N 26.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 13.5N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.9N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 14.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 15.1N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 15.7N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-09-05 16:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051446 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 30 kt removed deep convection from Kevin's low-level circulation, beginning around 0000 UTC. The deep convection, along with Kevin's mid-level circulation, has since dissipated. With no active convection for some time, Kevin is being declared a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt in accordance with the latest satellite classifications and based on the assumption that some spin down of the circulation has occurred since the last advisory. Global models depict Kevin degenerating into a trough of low pressure in about 12 hours, and the official forecast indicates dissipation in about a day. The cyclone was moving north-northeastward overnight while slowing down, but has since turned northward and recently north- northwestward. The initial motion estimate is now 340/06. A turn toward the northwest is expected before the cyclone dissipates tomorrow in agreement with the track model guidance. For additional information on this remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.6N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-05 16:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051445 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were available at the time of this advisory. The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of a general westward track for the next 3 days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not acknowledge the existence of a cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-09-05 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051444 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear. However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance. Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west- northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the GFS and the ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.4N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-09-05 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050834 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 South-southwesterly shear around 30 kt has displaced all remaining deep convection northeastward over the central Baja California peninsula, more than 120 n mi northeast of the presumed low-level center. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the western half of the circulation and showed no tropical storm force winds. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak numbers, with the assumption that tropical storm force winds might still be occurring within the eastern side of the circulation, which wasn't sampled by the scatterometer. Strong shear will continue advecting the leftover convection away from the low-level circulation, and barring redevelopment of new convection, Kevin will likely become a remnant low later today. Winds are forecast to quickly decrease, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Kevin is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, as shown by the latest global model fields. The center has been difficult to locate, but microwave images suggest that it has been tugged northeastward by the convection. The initial motion is 010/6 kt, but now that Kevin is becoming a shallow cyclone, it should be steered slowly northwestward and then westward by 36 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous one, only because of the adjusted initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.6N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 24.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 24.1N 116.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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