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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-09-03 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030235 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. Fred should move west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic. The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance envelope. Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72 hours. This, in combination with dry air entraining into the cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not earlier. After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and increasing moisture. In theory, this could allow the system to regenerate. However, while the dynamical models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of them show any significant intensification in the more favorable environment. Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a weak remnant low through 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.6N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 33.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 28.5N 41.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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fred
Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-03 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center of the depression. Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour. The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. I suspect this is on the conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is more concrete data to support an upgrade. The cyclone has about a day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air infiltrates the circulation. Remnant low status is anticipated by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions. The NHC wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit higher than the intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt. The global models are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. The biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response to the low-level flow. In general, the model guidance has trended a bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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depression
CSX sparks discussion, upgrades following Black Monday
2015-09-02 22:35:42| Railroads - Topix.net
Following an upgrade to buy by Stifel Nicolaus analysts, CSX Corp. stocks have been gaining traction, and garnering attention. Stifel analysts, calling CSX the best-performing East Coast railroad, upgrading the company from a "hold" to a "buy."
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-02 22:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022034 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the center this afternoon. Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone for a bit longer. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of 2.5 from TAFB. Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours. Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection. Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Fred should move west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the Azores. The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and is near the middle of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 20.3N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 22.4N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 23.4N 40.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 25.3N 41.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 27.5N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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fred
Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-02 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022031 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015 Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops. Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of the cyclone's surface center. Subsequently, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Guidance still indicates that the depression could become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of the IVCN and FSSE forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days. As the tropical cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a generally north-northwestward direction or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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depression
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