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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-01 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 Fred's weakening appears to have ceased for the moment. Deep convection developed just north of the center since the previous advisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little during the day. A blend of the various Dvorak T-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial intensity of 45 kt. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous forecast. Fred will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive thermodynamic environment. This should cause the tropical cyclone to gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is expected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days. The global models predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken after 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic. After this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and northward in the low-level southeasterly flow. The model guidance has shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the models showing a weaker Fred moving more westward. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the model consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.8N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.4N 29.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 20.0N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.6N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 23.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 25.0N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-09-01 16:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011438 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with evidence of erosion of Jimena's inner eyewall in the southern portion. Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the weakening trend that has commenced. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on the SHIPS model and the HWRF. The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt. Jimena has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge. A subsequent turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by the 48 hour period and through the end of the period. The NHC forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus. Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-09-01 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011437 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 Fred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated deep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and become less organized. The center has also become exposed to the south of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Additional weakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear, mid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures. The tropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this could occur sooner. Fred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to upper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic. This should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the forecast period. The models that keep Fred stronger show the northwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast. The NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that all take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.3N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.0N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.1N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 22.8N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 24.4N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-01 16:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the consensus and similar to the previous one. The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered toward the north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow. Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-01 10:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010851 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 A couple of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0530 UTC showed that the cyclone was not quite yet producing tropical-storm-force winds--but it was close. A burst of convection has recently developed near the low-level center, but the overall convective pattern is somewhat elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data. The depression still appears to be experiencing some vertical shear, but this shear should stay below 15 kt for the next 36 hours or so. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear increases significantly after 48 hours due to the flow ahead of a large upper-level trough west of the California coast, and the cyclone should therefore weaken back to a depression by day 3 and degenerate to a remnant low by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and largely unchanged from the previous advisory. The ASCAT data made the low-level center a little easier to locate, and the initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn toward the northwest and north during the next couple of days as it moves between a mid-level anticyclone over Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula. However, once it becomes a remnant low, the system is likely to become trapped in weak low-level flow, meandering or becoming nearly stationary southwest of the Baja California peninsula by day 5. The NHC track forecast is closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 12.6N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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