je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2016-05-28 05:06:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 02:33:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 03:03:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-05-28 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 280236 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the past few hours, and the associated deep convection is confined to a somewhat linear band north and northwest of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, consistent with a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The biggest positive factor for the cyclone intensifying in the next 12 to 36 hours is its movement over the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are above 27C. However, moderate to strong vertical shear and dry air argue against significant strengthening. Given these competing factors, the official forecast continues to show modest intensification during the first 24-36 hours. This forecast is closest to the SHIPS model. After 36 hours, a track over cooler shelf waters and an increase in shear should result in slow weakening, with the system expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 300/10, with the depression currently situated between a mid/upper-level low over the northwest Bahamas and a narrow mid-level ridge extending east of the North Carolina coast. These features should result in a continued west- northwestward track for the next 24 hours. After that time, both of these synoptic steering features weaken while a broad mid/upper- level trough moves into the eastern United States. This pattern suggests that the cyclone will slow down and gradually turn northward and then northeastward in 2-3 days. Through day 3 the NHC track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and lies a bit to the right of the previous official forecast, especially at 48 and 72 hours. After that time the global model spread is larger. The ECMWF shows the remnant low moving more quickly northeastward, while the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean show a motion back toward the west at days 4-5. The NHC forecast late in the period still favors the ECMWF track, but is slower given the latest GFS/GEFS trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 29.0N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 30.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 31.3N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 32.2N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 32.7N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 34.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri May 27 the center of TWO was located near 29.0, -75.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 2
2016-05-28 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 75.9W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 75.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest and then toward the north are expected on Saturday night and Sunday as the system nears the coast in the warning area. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Saturday night or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-05-28 04:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 280231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 3(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 2(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 9(20) 1(21) 2(23) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 8(24) 2(26) 2(28) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 6(24) 1(25) 1(26) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 7(27) 1(28) 1(29) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 8(25) 6(31) 1(32) X(32) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 8( 8) 16(24) 8(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 11(11) 24(35) 6(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 9( 9) 21(30) 5(35) 3(38) X(38) 1(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) 3(29) X(29) 1(30) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [1174] [1175] [1176] [1177] [1178] [1179] [1180] [1181] [1182] [1183] [1184] [1185] [1186] [1187] [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] next »